Skip to content Skip to navigation

鲍彤:我对中美“贸易战”持乐观态度

September 17, 2018

我的乐观,有三个根据。

第一个根据,不管事态怎么发展,绝无“战争”之可能。美国没有开战的需要,中国没有开战的能力。就算有人虚张声势发出一些滑稽的叫嚣,仍然百分之百没有战争的危险。要十三亿中国人忘掉和美国友好的“一千条理由”是绝对做不到的。

第二个根据,不管事态怎么发展,中国绝对离不开美国。

有一种谋略,据说依靠非洲就可以取代美国。那是自欺欺人的馊主意。

中国最需要的,是美金,是技术,是粮食和饲料。这三者,可以说是当前中国的命根子。非洲有美金吗?有技术吗?有粮食和饲料吗?除非做梦。当然咯,可以交交朋友,造造声势,扩大一些影响,但是丢了命根子,还有什么声势什么影响可言?还有什么本钱去收买友谊!所以,偶尔说说梦话是有趣的,把宝押在做梦上却是政治家所不取的。

因此,唯一的可能是必然——必然自动要求回到谈判桌上来!

最后,第三个问题是,会不会重新陷入十七年前那个旷日持久以废话和谎言浪费时间的泥坑?

十七年的教训没有人愿意置之脑后。双方都走出了错觉和幻想,都认清了对方的本质和自己能够得到的最大利益的现实的限度。美国总统的坚定的立场,中国主席的审慎的言行,都给世人以乐观的根据。

美方的底线已定:零关税,零壁垒,零补贴,停止盗窃知识产权,各自的公司各自拥有。

这是一条公平的友好的对等的底线。其实,难道这不正是中国民营企业和消费者们长期以来求之不得的底线吗?

形势比人强。形势迫使人们丢掉幻想。能够实现的选择,才是好的选择。坚持这条现实的公平的对等的底线不动摇,是中美两国共同的福音。不是说里子和面子吗?对等,就是有目共睹的最风光最得体的面子。国人的福祉和国家的进步,是真正有价值的里子。可以预期,坚持这条对等的底线不动摇,就能使双方完美地得到同样珍贵的里子和面子。

这是我对中美贸易前景持乐观态度的第三个根据。

——转自自由亚洲电台(2018-09-11)

中国人权双周刊》第244期,2018年9月14日—9月27日

Explore Topics

709 Crackdown Access to Information Access to Justice Administrative Detention All about law Arbitrary Detention
Asset Transparency Bilateral Dialogue Black Jail Book Review Business And Human Rights Censorship
Charter 08 Children Chinese Law Circumvention technology Citizen Activism Citizen Journalists
Citizen Participation Civil Society Commentary Communist Party Of China Constitution Consumer Safety
Contending views Corruption Counterterrorism Courageous Voices Cultural Revolution Culture Matters
Current affairs Cyber Security Daily Challenges Democratic And Political Reform Demolition And Relocation  Dissidents
Education Elections Enforced Disappearance Environment Ethnic Minorities EU-China
Family Planning Farmers Freedom of Association Freedom of Expression Freedom of Press Freedom of Religion
Government Accountability Government regulation Government transparency Hong Kong House Arrest HRIC Translation
Hukou Human Rights Council Human rights developments Illegal Search And Detention Inciting Subversion Of State Power Information Control 
Information technology Information, Communications, Technology (ICT) International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) International Human Rights International perspective International Relations
Internet Internet Governance JIansanjiang lawyers' rights defense Judicial Reform June Fourth Kidnapping
Labor Camps Labor Rights Land, Property, Housing Lawyer's rights Lawyers Legal System
Letters from the Mainland Major Event (Environment, Food Safety, Accident, etc.) Mao Zedong Microblogs (Weibo) National People's Congress (NPC) New Citizens Movement
Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) Olympics One country, two systems Online Activism Open Government Information Personal stories
Police Brutality Political commentary Political Prisoner Politics Prisoner Of Conscience Probing history
Propaganda Protests And Petitions Public Appeal Public Security Racial Discrimination Reeducation-Through-Labor
Rights Defenders Rights Defense Rule Of Law Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Special Topic State compensation
State Secrets State Security Subversion Of State Power Surveillance Technology Thoughts/Theories
Tiananmen Mothers Tibet Torture Typical cases United Nations US-China 
Uyghurs, Uighurs Vulnerable Groups Women Youth Youth Perspective
Error | Human Rights in China 中国人权 | HRIC

Error

The website encountered an unexpected error. Please try again later.