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李达宁:香港已进入慢性六四(图)

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August 29, 2019

 

非常明显,香港已进入慢性六四。大规模镇压、暴力血腥的画面不会出现。但事实是警察已开始滥捕并对示威者行私刑。所有示威者都是政权的敌人,用尽方法对付,务求将运动彻底瓦解。

示威者在司法上面对暴动罪,刑期以 6 年起跳,至 10 年不等。但更实时的是被捕被实时在警署内毒打。好快这种暴力会不断上升,打残打废示威者,令他们短期内不能再上街,长期则摧毁他们的健康和人生。情况持续则会打死人,而以人口失踪去解决。

到所有勇武抗争者都被捕、打残,政府就会宣布香港已回复秩序。来两次百万人游行而没有冲突,政府就可以向国际交代,谓香港市民有绝对的示威自由。政府会在和平理性的基础上继续与市民沟通。只要股市照常运作,高科技产品自由出入香港,那香港对中共的关键作用就分毫不损。

虽然说紧急状况难以正式颁布,但执行上则与之无异。独立、自由的媒体将面对严重的打压,以各种规例去骚扰、限制,亦可以诉诸司法。以各种名义去冻结资产令其不能运作。

从小学、到中学、大学,将发生全面打压。有任何自由思想倾向的学生将受到处罚。学校将会有官员驻守,加强对学校的控制。

在职场和商业社会,白色恐怖将不断扩散、漫延。任何大公司都将面对国泰一样的要挟。要继续做生意就要清除有自由思想的员工。任何在社交媒体的表态都会成为罪证。

之前我推想过新疆化的可能。但朋友郑子提出以上观点,指未必要彻底新疆化。在新疆化与现时的状态之间,可以找到符合中共需要的平衡,实行一种「警察社会」。香港不再行法治,而是恐怖统治,要有一口饭吃就得驯服。不驯服者在经济上就要陷入困境。如果仍执迷不悟,就预备要面对警察、黑社会的打压。人民将因恐惧而驯服,城市因此而保持运作。

作者 Facebook
 

——转自光传媒(2019-08-28)

中国人权双周刊》第269期,2019年8月30日—2019年9月12日

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